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Future rainfall erosivity projections (2050) based on climate change scenarios

The challenge to develop trends in soil erosion changes can be responded developing modelling scenarios of the two most dynamic factors in soil erosion: rainfall erosivity and land cover change.

The mean rainfall erosivity for the European Union and Switzerland is projected to be 857 MJ mm ha-1 h-1yr-1 till 2050 showing a relative mean increase of 18% compared to baseline data (2010).The changes are heterogeneous in the European continent depending on the future projec­tions of most erosive months (hot period: April–September).

The output results (published in a recent paper in the Journal of Hydrology) report a pan-European projection of future rainfall ero­sivity taking into account the uncertainties of the climatic models.

The rainfall erosivity in 2050 was modelled based on a moderate climate change scenario (HadGEM RCP 4.5) and using as main data sources the REDES based European R-factors. Data on erosivity projections are available.

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