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Chapter 6: Scenarios of Change

GLO chapter 6

Given growing demands on land and emerging challenges from land degradation and climate change, policymakers require information on the possible consequences. This chapter explores trends up to 2050, through the Shared Socio-economic Pathways scenarios, based on the report ‘Exploring the impact of changes in land-use and land condition on food, water, climate change mitigation and biodiversity: Scenarios for the UNCCD Global Land Outlook’ (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2017).

The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) have been developed to provide a framework for scenario analysis, considering multiple driving forces of economic development, population, technological development, land-use, and international cooperation.

It shows the results of three explorative scenarios (SSP1–3) and one variant on the SSP2 scenario to estimate the order of magnitude of global changes in land-use, and condition up to the year 2050 under different societal development paths.

The primary aim of a scenario in this context is to help decision-makers to explore and shape the future and realize a long-term vision of sustainable development for all. In Part Three of this Outlook, scenarios that reduce pressure on our land resources are translated into broadly understood principles and response pathways.

By analyzing the various pressures and forces that drive land-use change and land degradation, scenarios also allow a range of stakeholders at various scales to test how well the expected demand for and management of land resources will help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their targets, specifically SDG target 15.3 on land degradation neutrality.

chapter 6

Chapter 6: Scenarios Of Change

Given growing demands on land and emerging challenges from land degradation and climate change, policymakers require information on the possible consequences. This chapter explores trends up to 2050, through the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways scenarios. Future changes in the condition of land resources are projected to be extensive as a result of continued land use change and the deterioration of soils and biodiversity.

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