The European bioeconomy in 2050: four foresight scenarios
Strategic foresight will play a key role in helping future-proof EU policymaking by ensuring that short-term initiatives are grounded in a longer term perspective. To make the most of its potential, this Commission has a strong mandate to put strategic foresight at the heart of EU policymaking.
Strategic foresight can help build collective intelligence in a structured manner to better chart the way forward for the twin green and digital transitions and to recover from disruptions. With this Communication, the Commission sets out how it will integrate strategic foresight in EU policymaking and outlines related priorities. This is vital, as we are entering a new era, where action-oriented foresight will stimulate strategic thinking and shape EU policies and initiatives, including future Commission work programmes.
The central theme of this first report is resilience, which has become a new compass for EU policies with the COVID-19 crisis. Resilience is the ability not only to withstand and cope with challenges but also to undergo transitions in a sustainable, fair, and democratic manner. Resilience is necessary in all policy areas to undergo the green and digital transitions, while maintaining the EU’s core purpose and integrity in a dynamic and at times turbulent environment.
The Commission’s 2020 Strategic Foresight Report mentions the potential of a sustainable bioeconomy, to transform Europe’s agricultural and industrial base and create new jobs, whilst enhancing our natural resources and ecosystems.
The European Green Deal aims to achieve a climate-neutral society by 2050, while pursuing resilience to both mitigate and adapt to the impact of climate change, environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. This is an integral part of this Commission’s strategy to implement the UN’s 2030 Agenda and the SDGs. It implies a full decarbonisation of the power sector and a substantial electrification of energy demand.
- Land use emissions need to be zeroed and the land use sink needs to be enhanced by restoring the environment and adapting the farming sector, while ensuring a higher quality of life for everyone in the EU in a cost-efficient manner so as to bring further economic growth and enable Europe to act as a beacon of transformation for the rest of the world. To pursue this path, the EU’s capacities should be boosted to recover from the crisis and invest in long-term sustainability.
The preservation or restoration of environmental quality is at the heart of many jobs of the future. These jobs will occur in agriculture, (re)manufacturing, construction, research and development, administration and services. They include, for instance, sustainable food production and distribution, green and efficient building, water quality and regeneration, green design, forestry, urban and landfill mining, repair and recycling of raw materials, pharmaceuticals, low-emissions mobility and transport, renewable energy, ocean acidity, and footprint managers.
Resource constraints and the need for increased efficiency will transform many professions, bringing in new business models and requiring new skills. Our environmental policies are contributing to a structural shift in the labour market.
- Some analyses estimate that a large proportion of EU jobs may evolve in a way that contributes to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and addressing environmental degradation.
A team of six core experts have built - upon intelligence from more than 50 additional specialists from across the policy, civil society, industry and academia domains - four alternative scenarios for the EU bioeconomy in 2050.
The scenarios describe plausible alternative narratives of the bioeconomy in 2050, based on the multiple drivers that can affect its future, and their interplay, and depending on the realisation of specific boundary conditions.
Each scenario describes the world, Europe and the bioeconomy in 2050 and to what extent each scenario would contribute to the objectives of the EU Bioeconomy Strategy and to selected United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
- Scenario 'Do it for us': A consistent and coherent set of policies is designed, and implemented to foster radical change in the supply systems, but society resists significant changes in demand (consumption) away from Business As Usual (BAU).
- Scenario 'Do it together': Both the political system and society are aligned to achieve the climate-neutrality goal and the SDGs. Businesses quickly adapt and are part of the change. The transformative process includes all actors.
- Scenario 'Do it ourselves': The political system shows an incapacity to implement significant climate and SDG policies. However, consumers change their attitudes and behaviour under the thrust of increasingly influential social movements and the aftermath of a series of dramatic crises. Subsequently, the resulting change in demand (both patterns and levels) drives the supply system to adapt.
- Scenario 'Do what is unavoidable': Lifestyles do not change significantly from BAU patterns (but consumption levels rise), and the political system is not able or supportive to implement/enforce proactive policies, limiting itself to adopt – with some delay – measures in reaction to crises.
The JRC and DG Research and Innovation plan to explore further these scenarios, in order to facilitate and strengthen strategic and systemic reflections amongst key stakeholders of the European Bioeconomy.
Bioeconomy
Bioeconomy includes all economic and industrial sectors that rely on renewable biological resources from land and sea, such as crops, forests, fish, animals and micro-organisms to produce food, materials, energy and services.
It makes up an important part of the EU economy, generating 4.7% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and employing 8.9% of the labour force in the EU-27 in 2017. The 2018 EU Bioeconomy Strategy aims to develop a circular, sustainable bioeconomy for Europe, strengthening the connection between economy, society, and environment.
It addresses global challenges such as meeting the SDGs set by the United Nations and the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement. A circular, sustainable bioeconomy can be a core instrument for the Green Deal in the post-COVID-19 era, making the EU more sustainable and competitive.
Further reading:
- Future transitions for the bioeconomy towards sustainable development and a climate-neutral economy - Foresight scenarios for the EU bioeconomy in 2050
- Future transitions for the Bioeconomy towards Sustainable Development and a Climate-Neutral Economy - Knowledge Synthesis Final Report
- Strategic Foresight Report
Related topics
- Agricultural monitoring
- Biofuels and bioenergy
- Climate change
- Fisheries and Aquaculture
- Forestry
- Green and circular economy
- Impacts of climate change
- Research and innovation policies
- Sustainability of climate policies
- Sustainable production and consumption
