Resilient to climate change - The Economist Intelligence Unit. To adapt to climate change are vulnerable countries getting the money they need?
RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE? WHY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WILL BE MOST AFFECTED BY 2050. A new report from The Economist Intelligence Unit is making some dire predictions about the effects of climate change on the global economy. Its writers say that, by 2050, they “expect the global economy to be 3 percent smaller than our baseline projections.”
That figure, however, is a global average. “At the country level,” the study states, “climate research to date has shown that it is most likely those countries that are poorer and with higher average temperatures that will be the most affected.”
While the rich countries of the north, including those of western Europe, will see a shrinkage of about 1.1 to 1.7 percent, the economies of African nations will contract by as much as 4.7 percent. Next most affected is Latin America, where economies will be 3.8 percent smaller.
In its new Climate Change Resilience Index, The Economist scored 82 countries on how they are likely to fare under current projections. The index looked at a number of factors, including lower crop yields, loss of trade, and infrastructure damage, as well as the costs of mitigation and adaptation. And while, as the report put it, “being rich matters when it comes to minimising the impact of climate change,” strong, functional institutions are equally important. “Governance, institutional quality and policy effectiveness all have the potential to curtail economic losses,” it says.
Knowles pointed out that many developing countries in Latin America offer examples of both fairly good governance as well as sensible efforts to deal with their climate challenges. Argentina, for instance, which has suffered four major droughts since 2009, is aiming to surpass its nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. “This is because the Argentinean leadership,” the report says, “recognises that climate change represents a risk to Argentina’s long-term growth rate, most obviously through its impact on the important agriculture sector.”it is pretty clear that the countries that are most vulnerable, the developing countries generally, and African countries in particular, are the ones who almost certainly need a bigger dollar for adaptation than they are currently getting,” said Knowles.
Meanwhile, a recent Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) report is showing increased flows in climate finance to the developing world, from USD 58.6 in 2016 to USD 71.2 in 2017. As The Economist Intelligence Unit emphasized, in the coming decades, poor institutional preparedness and effectiveness to tackle climate change will widen inequalities between rich and poorer countries. Using public money wisely could not only enhance institutional strength but also induce the private sector to move into countries and sectors that they might otherwise perceive as being too risky. ( Source: GLF landscape news )