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UNHCR is releasing a new data visualization – ‘Displaced on the frontlines of the climate emergency

A new data visualization shows how the climate emergency is converging with other threats to drive new displacement and increase the vulnerability of those already forced to flee.

From the Sahel to Central America, climate change is driving displacement and increasing the vulnerability of those already forced to flee. The climate emergency is the defining crisis of our time and displacement is one of its most devastating consequences. Entire populations are already suffering the impacts, but vulnerable people living in some of the most fragile and conflict-affected countries are disproportionately affected.

Refugees, internally displaced people (IDPs) and stateless persons are on the frontlines of the climate emergency. Many are living in climate “hotspots” where they typically lack the resources to adapt to an increasingly inhospitable environment.

The defining challenge

Climate change is real and human activities are the main cause. Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing average global temperatures faster than at any point in the history of modern civilization. The past six years have been the warmest on record. 

The impacts of global warming are already being felt worldwide. Sea levels are rising, sea-ice is retreating, seasonal rainfall patterns are more unpredictable and extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense. 

Disaster displacement

Over the past decade, weather-related events triggered an average of 21.5 million new displacements* each year – more than twice as many as displacements caused by conflict and violence.

Most people displaced by disasters remain within their home countries, often living in areas highly exposed to weather-related hazards, such as floods and storms

Roughly 90 per cent of refugees and Venezuelans displaced abroad come from countries that are the most vulnerable and least ready to adapt to the impacts of climate change. These countries also host around 70 per cent of people internally displaced by conflict or violence. 

The case of Afghanistan

Afghanistan is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Nearly all its 34 provinces have been hit by at least one disaster during the past 30 years. At the same time, the country is ranked the least peaceful globally due to a longstanding conflict that has killed and injured thousands of people and displaced millions. As of mid-2020, more than 2.6 million Afghans were internally displaced and another 2.7 million were living as registered refugees in other countries, mainly Pakistan and Iran.

Recurring floods and droughts, as well as population growth, have compounded Afghanistan’s vulnerability to food and water scarcity, and reduced the prospects of refugees and IDPs being able to return to their home areas. Estimates point to up to 16.9 million Afghans – nearly half of the country’s population - lacking enough food in the first quarter of 2021, including at least 5.5 million facing emergency levels of food deprivation (IPC 4).

Food insecurity

As productive land and water become scarcer due to the impacts of climate change, decreasing crop yields and food production have major implications for food security

Prices tend to increase, making food unaffordable for many impoverished or displaced communities. Food insecurity can be a direct outcome of climate-related disasters or conflict, or result from a combination of both. It can also be a trigger for social tensions and violence, increasing the risk of new displacement.

Worldwide, 80 per cent of displaced people live in areas affected by malnutrition and acute food insecurity.

Flood risk

While climate change is exacerbating water scarcity and desertification in arid and semi-arid regions, it is linked to others becoming more flood-prone.

Bangladesh has always been prone to tropical storms and flooding, but climate change is causing more frequent and intense cyclones and flooding that threaten both Bangladeshis and the more than 870,000 Rohingya refugees hosted in the south of the country.

During monsoon season, torrential rainfall sweeps through the Rohingya refugee settlements in Cox’s Bazar, causing flooding and landslides that can destroy shelters and displace the refugees living there once again. 

Climate change is multiplying risks for displaced populations around the world

Central America's "Dry Corridor"

The Dry Corridor comprises parts of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Climate risks in the Dry Corridor include recurrent droughts, excessive rains and severe flooding, all of which affect agricultural production in areas where people rely on farming to make a living. Small-scale farmers fleeing droughts and devastating storms tend to move into urban areas with limited job opportunities and affordable housing. Forced into slum areas, they are more vulnerable to gang violence and extortion, as well as flooding when storms hit. Two consecutive hurricanes battered the region in November 2020, affecting over 8 million people and increasing the likelihood of cross-border movement, including of people feeling persecution and violence.

The Sahel

In recent years, countries in the Sahel region have experienced long periods of drought and mounting insecurity and displacement due to armed groups. There are over 2 million internally displaced people in the region, with more than 1 million in Burkina Faso alone. Some of the worst violence and displacement in Burkina Faso has occurred in the poorest, most drought-affected areas where armed groups have exploited tensions over access to dwindling water sources and shrinking arable land.

Somalia

Somalia is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change and extreme weather. Droughts and floods have become more frequent, progressively worsening food security and destroying livelihoods. The country has also battled with political instability and a decades-long conflict with militant group, Al-Shabab. The number of people internally displaced by conflict and disasters has now reached more than 2.9 million.

The effects of climate change have also influenced the dynamics of the conflict, as Al-Shabab has used the loss of livelihoods and pasturelands caused by drought to boost recruitment.

Yemen

With more than 75 per cent of the population engaged in farming and pastoralism, Yemen is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Shorter growing seasons and flash flooding coupled with the devastating ongoing conflict have contributed to a widespread food security crisis. More than half of the population does not have sufficient food, but the country’s 4 million IDPs are four times more likely than the rest of the population to suffer from food insecurity.

Yemen’s ability to address the current and future impacts of climate change is severely limited by the ongoing conflict and weak governance.

No room to recover

More than 1 billion people live in countries with high exposure to climate-related hazards and limited capacity to recover when a disaster occurs. In 2019, roughly 95 per cent of displacements due to disasters were triggered by weather events, particularly storms and floods.

Recurring storms and floods in conflict areas add to the burden on affected people and governments, leaving them no room to recover. In turn, conflict may increase vulnerability to disasters – limiting the availability of safe places to shelter and basic infrastructure to respond. Fear of targeted attacks can also leave displaced people exposed to the elements.

The case of Mozambique

The effect of disaster after disaster has hampered recovery in central Mozambique, particularly as the country struggles to contain violence and cope with the growing numbers displaced by conflict in Cabo Delgado province. By the end of 2020, violence had forced some 670,000 people in the north from their homes, compared to 10,000 when violence broke out in 2017 and 110,000 when it began to escalate in 2019.

The armed conflict and climatic shocks have also aggravated deep-rooted poverty in the country, leaving roughly 1 million people in urgent need of humanitarian assistance by the end of 2020.

UNHCR's climate action

UNHCR is calling on States to urgently and collectively take action to combat climate change and mitigate its impacts on the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people around the world. We’re also urging States to step up their protection and assistance to people displaced by disasters and the effects of climate change.

In January 2020, the High Commissioner for Refugees appointed a Special Advisor for Climate Action to drive UNHCR’s climate action agenda, which focuses on three main areas:

Law and policy

Providing legal advice, guidance and support to the international community develop protection for refugees, IDPs and other people affected by the impacts of climate change.

  • The term “climate refugees” does not exist under international law, but recent guidance issued by UNHCR notes that, under the 1951 Refugee Convention, “people may have a valid claim for refugee status where the adverse effects of climate change or disasters interact with conflict and violence”.
  • Regional refugee frameworks that recognize “events seriously disturbing public order” as criteria for refugee status may also be applicable when the effects of climate change qualify as such events. 

Operations

Reducing environmental degradation in places where people are already displaced and helping displaced people and host communities prepare for and adapt to the foreseeable effects of climate change.

 

UNHCR’s environmental footprint

Improving UNHCR’s environmental sustainability by reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing negative impacts on the environment. For example, we have been implementing clean energy solutions in our field offices and reducing transport-related emissions. The Green Box Initiative supports the installation of energy meters in UNHCR offices that connect to a global dashboard for monitoring the organization’s power consumption and suggesting alternative energy solutions. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought an extra layer of vulnerability to people already living with the impacts of climate change, insecurity and displacement. The global response to COVID can offer some important lessons for how we respond to the more complex threat posed by climate change.

Estimates predict that without ambitious climate action and disaster risk reduction, the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance due to disasters could increase to 200 million annually by 2050 – nearly twice the current number. The longer we delay action to support poorer countries that are highly vulnerable to climate change, the worse the consequences are likely to be, making responses even more complex and costly.

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