The Drought Toolbox is currently being developed as part of the Drought Initiative by the close partnership collaboration of:

• The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification 
• The World Meteorological Organization 
• The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
• The Global Water Partnership
•  The Joint Research Center of the European Commission
• The United Nations Environment Programme-DHI Centre for Water and Environment 
• The National Drought Mitigation Center from the University of Nebraska

Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

The drought risk impacts are proportional to the level of vulnerability and the degree of drought in a region. 

Why a risk assessment is important?

A risk assessment provides important information that helps define priorities and develop actions that prevent drought from escalating into a disaster and mitigate its impacts. The assessment can also help identify vulnerable locations where the impacts of drought are or expected to be most severe, so that authorities can direct drought preparedness, mitigation and crises response actions to the most vulnerable communities and sectors. Vulnerability and risk assessments should be well-coordinated and consistent to ensure informed decision making and drought risk mitigation intervention priorities, as explained in pillar Three of the Drought Toolbox. Results of the assessment should be incorporated into land use and rural development planning, health care systems, environmental and natural resource management approaches to supply chains and business models, and agricultural as well as non-agricultural sectors.

How does a drought risk assessment fit into a National Drought Plan?

Understanding and assessing drought vulnerability should take into account that various sectors, population groups and regions of a country can be more vulnerable than others or vulnerable in different ways. A National Drought Plan should include a risk assessment to ensure that preparedness, response and drought mitigation activities are effective, efficient and targeted at those who need them most.

The UNCCD 2018-2030 Strategic Framework includes a new strategic objective (SO3) on the consideration of drought in national action programmes. With particular reference to vulnerability and impact assessment, the COP 13 decision 29 focused on the opportunities for the Parties to consider completing assessments for sectors, population groups and regions vulnerable to drought.

What is included in this drought risk assessment?

Here, drought risk is calculated as the probability of harmful consequences or likelihood of losses resulting from interactions between drought hazard (for example, possible future occurrence of drought events), drought exposure (such as the total population, its sources of livelihood and assets in an area in which drought events may occur) and drought vulnerability (for example, the propensity of exposed elements to suffer adverse effects when impacted by a drought event) (Carrão et al. 2016). Drought risk is calculated by using the following formula:

Drought risk = Vulnerability x Hazard x Exposure

Each component of drought risk is calculated independently of each other, based on global-scale indicators of different spatial resolutions.

• Hazard has been established by using historical sequences of monthly precipitation deficits for the period between 1901 and 2010
• Exposure has been computed at the sub-national level using high spatial resolution gridded indicators of population and livestock density, crop cover and baseline water stress
• Vulnerability has been derived from a combination of factors of social, economic and infrastructural indicators

Vulnerability and risk assessment tools

The decision tree will guide you through the search questions and help find your risk and vulnerability assessment tools. You can skip questions when you are unsure about answers. 

Decision tree

Decision tree 

Drought Risk Assessment Visualization Tool

How to use this tool:

Follow these steps to review and analyze the Drought Risk calculations in your location.

1.  Select a dataset

Use the dropdowns on the top left to select what data you want to explore
 

In the dropdown select the indicator you want to visualize

Please note: For Land cover change, you can switch between “from” and “to”. 

2.  Choose what is on the display

You can use the “layer” button in the top right to select what to display 
 

• A background map, loaded from an external source not associated with UNCCD data (currently the tool offers maps from Esri and Google)
• The indicator layer (only one is shown at a time. Use the toggle to show/hide the selected data layer)

Please note: Using the toggle to show/hide the data layer you can quickly switch between the data view and the background map view.

3.  Access additional information 

Use the buttons at the top to select additional information to display for the selected indicator. 

• Map: Access the maps related to the indicator
• Metadata: Access the metadata, which includes a description and further information related to the data sources
• Legend: Toggle the view of a legend indicating the colors used to display the data on the map

4.  Adding or removing pin on a map

Use your mouse to place a pin on the map.

• Click a location on the map to place a pin
• To remove a pin, click on the close "x" button

The data

The drought risk assessment in this tool has been completed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission and is applicable for 2000-2018. It uses a global-scale top-down data-driven approach that is consistent and applicable to all regions of the world. The maps are a first screening analysis and it is recommended that local assessments of risk are carried out to improve the outputs for targeting of drought preparedness and appropriate drought mitigation solutions. The outputs of the drought risk assessment provide a relative measure of drought risk globally – that is, the scale of risk is not a measure of absolute losses or actual damage to human health or the environment, but a ranking and comparison of specific geographic regions. 

The data presented here has been provided by the European Commission (EC) and the Joint Research Center (JRC) and is based on the research as documented in the report: Carrão, H., Naumann, G., & Barbosa, P. (2016). Mapping global patterns of drought risk: An empirical framework based on sub-national estimates of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 39, 108-124. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha. 2016.04.12

Metadata for Hazard 

Drought risk is assessed for the period 2000–2018 and is based on the product of three independent determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. This dataset contains the data on Hazard. Drought hazard is derived from an analysis of historical precipitation deficits The Full Data Reanalysis Monthly Product Version 6.0 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC).

Metadata for Exposure

Drought risk is assessed for the period 2000–2018 and is based on the product of three independent determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. This dataset contains the data on Exposure. Drought exposure is based on an aggregation of indicators of population and livestock densities, crop cover and water stress. Global agricultural lands in the year 2000 Gridded population of the world, version 4 (GPWv4) Gridded livestock of the world (GLW), v2.0 Baseline water stress (BWS).

Metadata for Vulnerability

Drought risk is assessed for the period 2000–2018 and is based on the product of three independent determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. This dataset contains the data on Vulnerability. Drought vulnerability is computed as the composite of factors of social, economic and infrastructural indicators, collected at both the national and subnational levels

• World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/products/wdi 
• U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), http://www.eia.gov/ . 
• Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.aspx#home 
• Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), http://stats.oecd.org/ 
• Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm 
• Aqueduct, http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/aqueduct , and
• Global Roads Open Access Dataset (gROADSv1), http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/groads-global-roads-open-acce…

Metadata for Risk

Drought risk is assessed for the period 2000–2018 and is based on the product of three independent determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. It is calculated with a geometric mean following this equation: Risk = (Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability) ^ (1/3).  

Risk Mitigation

Proactive drought risk management could save lives and the livelihoods of millions of people.

From a reactive to a proactive approach

Despite the costly emergency funding, deficiency of effectiveness, and lack of long-term vulnerability and sustainability causes, in many countries, the reactive approach to drought prevails nearly every time. The principles of risk reduction and prevention adopted as a proactive approach are an urgent need in order to switch from "crisis" management to "risk" management (Brüntrup et al. 2017).

Switching from reactive to a proactive approach to drought is a key topic in Risk Mitigation. 

Drought risk mitigation measures

There are practical measures that can be taken immediately. Both measures and actions also called drought risk management options, build greater resilience to drought or reduce the impacts of drought. These measures concern all sectors affected by drought, based on their vulnerabilities. However, working with nature and understanding the necessary combination of measures is particularly important for the sectors reliant on the availability of water and ecosystems services.

People and Ecosystem Resilience

Examples of Solutions for Risk Mitigation are:

• The exploration of drought-tolerant crops,
• The expansion of crop insurance schemes,
• The establishment of alternative livelihood’s income diversification in drought-prone areas,  
• The development of sustainable irrigation schemes for crops and livestock, and
• Water harvesting schemes that could boost the recycling and resources of water.

Also, ecological benefits are originated by the nature-based solutions to drought, involving mitigation and adaptation to climate change as well as risk reduction to natural hazards. 

Solutions to boost the resilience of people and ecosystems to drought.